Strobe DocsTribal Markets
A tribal market measures the activity of a group ("tribe") of people online. These markets are ongoing, based on continuous live social media data from Twitter and Reddit.
Examples
| Tribe | Example Market |
|---|---|
| Big Tech Mafia (Bezos, Zuck, Altman, Elon, etc.) | Do the Big Tech Mafia think an AI Bubble is coming? Are the Big Tech Mafia paying attention to BTC? |
| Republican Contenders (Vance, Rubio, Youngkin…) | Are the Republican Contenders Loyal to Trump? Are the Republican Contenders Altruistic? |
| Top Crypto Twitter Accounts (Ansem, Hsaka, cobie …) | Are the top CT accounts bullish on SOL? Are the top CT accounts genuinely excited about memecoins? |
| NYC Top Influencers | Do influential New Yorkers like Mamandi? Do influential New Yorkers care about poverty? Do influential New Yorkers care about the climate? |
How do you create a tribal market?
1. Pick a Tribe
Pick a bucket of accounts to measure. Activity on Twitter can be measured from their tweets, retweets, and/or replies. Activity on Reddit can be measured from account comments and/or replies. For the first phase of permissionless markets, only the Strobe team will be able to create tribes, and external creators will start at step 2.
2. Ask a Yes/No Question
Write a prompt that describes what would indicate a positive/yes, and what would indicate a negative/no. This prompt is used to create a small model which makes yes/no (binary) judgements.
3. Make it a Price
Convert this measurement model into the index price for the perp market by selecting one of the index functions from a dropdown. These functions take the model's yes/no answers and apply simple math, similar to how stock prices or cash-settled assets are modeled, to turn the raw signals into a smooth number that moves up or down in response to new posts and their frequency. Read more here.
4. List the Market
Once the index has been published, all that's left to do is configure the market, with the oracle address set to the corresponding index. As the creator, you must seed a small amount of initial liquidity so that others can trade once the market is listed. You can withdraw this liquidity after the market's lockup period has expired.
How do you get deep liquidity?
It is not easy. One important part is designing indices with amenable properties for LPs.